Frequently Asked Questions
About the data, method, and findings of “Labor Market Impacts of ICE Activity in Trump 2.0.”
01What data does the paper use?
02How do you separate the effects of ICE activity from everything else?
We isolate the effects of ICE activity from any number of other changes under the current administration by comparing changes in employment across areas and over time with more and less ICE activity. This makes it easier to draw conclusions about what is causing the changes in employment.
03What are chilling effects?
Chilling effects are the effects of enforcement that cause people to be fearful of participating in their regular activities — including going to work — because they believe this could lead to an interaction with ICE and eventual deportation.
See in mechanisms04Why are U.S.-born workers affected by ICE activity?
Evidence suggests that immigrant workers are complements to U.S.-born workers rather than substitutes. So reductions in immigrant employment lead to reductions in U.S.-born employment as well.
See in mechanisms05Were employment effects the same across sectors?
No. Some sectors saw stronger employment effects from ICE activity than others. In particular, more immigrant-intensive sectors saw larger employment declines, such as:
06What do we expect to see as time passes?
Past research indicates that the harmful effects of mass deportation campaigns are long-lasting, and there is no large rebound effect for U.S.-born workers.
See other related research