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The ICE Effect: How Immigration Enforcement Affects the Economy and Jobs

By Elizabeth Cox and Chloe N. East

This website discusses the state of knowledge on the economic impacts of ICE activity in the second Trump administration. It provides a guide to understanding the effects as measured in 'Labor Market Impacts of ICE Activity in Trump 2.0' as well as summaries of and links to other related research.

National Bureau of Economic Research
Working Paper Series
Labor Market Impacts of ICE Activity in Trump 2.0
Elizabeth Cox
Chloe N. East
For every ICE arrest
7

likely undocumented immigrant men stop working

For every ICE arrest
9

U.S.-born men stop working

Where ICE activity surged, employment fell for immigrants and U.S.-born workers alike.

Per 1,000 ICE arrests
−2.5%
Employment of likely undocumented immigrant men
Per 1,000 ICE arrests
−0.54%
Employment of U.S.-born men in the same area
Wages
No gain
For men who kept their jobs

The arrests cost U.S.-born workers their jobs, too.

Why does ICE activity affect workers and the broader labor market?

01

Direct effects

When ICE arrests someone, this often removes a worker from the community.

02

Effects among immigrants who remain in the country

Chilling effects. ICE activity causes immigrants who remain in the country to feel fearful about participating in their usual activities — including going to work — because they’re worried they could have an interaction with ICE. This leads other immigrants to reduce their work in response to ICE.

03

These effects extend to U.S.-born individuals

Complements, not substitutes. Unauthorized immigrant workers are complementary to U.S.-born workers: having immigrants in the workplace supports U.S. jobs rather than competing with them.

Unauthorized immigrant workers tend to work in different occupations than U.S.-born workers. Some common examples in the U.S.:

Construction
More laborers — a common occupation for unauthorized immigrants
More needed
Managers and electricians — more common for U.S.-born individuals
Restaurants
More cooks and food prep workers — commonly unauthorized immigrants
More hired
Waiters and waitresses — more commonly U.S.-born
Caregiving
More caregivers — especially childcare and elder care
Freed to work
More U.S.-born individuals work outside the home — with lighter caregiving responsibilities
04

Deportations are bad for all workers

  • Heightened immigration enforcement makes immigrant workers feel more vulnerable to deportation, creating a large body of workers who are more easily exploitable in the workplace. That is bad for all workers, because it reduces their collective bargaining power.
  • Research shows that during mass deportations there are more unreported minimum wage violations, as well as more safety violations and injuries.
05

Immigration enforcement hurts the broader economy

Enforcement reduces local demand.

  • Deporting individuals directly removes consumers from local economies.
  • Chilling effects reduce demand even from those who remain in the country.
  • Some early evidence shows that even U.S.-born individuals, who have not traditionally been affected by ICE activity, are choosing to stay home more to avoid ICE. [1] [2]

Historical precedents

The present activity from DHS appears to be no different from previous time periods of mass deportations, all of which had negative economic effects.

1930s
Mexican Repatriation
1954
Eisenhower Mass Deportation Operation
2008–2014
Secure Communities
2025–Present
DHS Enforcement Blitz
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